Voter Registration Data Shows GOP Gaining Voters in Hot Swing State as Democrats Lose Big Time
New voter registration information released by the Arizona Secretary of State reveals that the Republican Party has increased its party affiliation advantage in the state, in a development with political implications in what was one of the most contentious swing states in the nation during the 2020 election.
The GOP crossed the threshold of 1,500,000 registered voters in the state, staking out a numerical advantage of 137,124 over the Democrats.
The Democratic Party experienced a net loss of registered voters, with impressionable Arizonans fleeing the party amid President Joe Biden’s seemingly innumerable policy failures and inability to advance his legislative agenda.
Total change from July 2021 to January 2022
GOP +1440
Dem -10,362Some counties July 21 to Jan 2022
Maricopa
GOP -1,687
Dem -4,959Mohave
GOP +2,098
Dem -85Pima
GOP -2,202
Dem -3,316Pinal
GOP +1,789
Dem -39Yavapai
GOP +207
Dem -856Yuma
GOP +415
Dem -46— Billy Newby (@mantlehog) February 1, 2022
Democrats lost a whopping 10,362 registered voters in Arizona, potentially spurring the party’s elite donors and insiders into panic mode.
The party suffered its worst registration losses in Maricopa and Pima Counties, the two jurisdictions that encompass the cities of Phoenix and Tucson respectively.
Democrats also lost voters in conservative-leaning rural counties, such as Yavapai and Mohave. In contrast, Republican voters gained net voters in these same counties.
Arizona will hold statewide elections for the U.S. Senate and governor in 2022, with incumbent Senator Mark Kelly considered among the most vulnerable Democrats in the country.
The 2020 presidential election was determined by just over 10,000 votes in the state — a margin far slimmer than the registration gains Republicans have scored and Democrats have lost since July of 2021.
Since then, the worst of Biden’s policy failures — such as Afghanistan, inflation and skyrocketing gas prices — have been baked into the president’s polling prospects.
Arizona has traditionally been a red state, but the 2020 election witnessed a phenomenon in which more affluent suburban voters swung for Biden.
During Trump’s presidency, Democrats succeeded in flipping both of Arizona’s U.S. Senate seats as well.
National polling data has indicated that Biden’s popularity has tanked among this critical voter demographic, potentially putting a fork into Democrats’ plans to turn Arizona into a full-on blue state.
Some political theorists have suggested that Republicans stand to face political costs from the high influx of — mostly blue state — internal migrants to Sun Belt states, such as Arizona and Florida, but some polling has indicated that interstate migration is more beneficial for Republicans than they tend to believe.
Republican primaries for statewide offices in Arizona are hotly contested, with multiple candidates running for the open senate seat and the governor’s office.
A redistricting of the state’s congressional seats is also considered slightly favorable to Republicans.
Democrats currently possess 5 of the 9 seats in the state’s congressional delegation.
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