RFK Jr. Dropping Out? He Could Be Making the Biggest Decision of the Race, And It May Affect Trump's Chances
It may turn out that the biggest campaign news of the past week may not have been the goings-on at the Democratic National Convention between Monday and Thursday, but instead a news conference on Friday by a presidential contender attached to neither the Republicans nor Democrats.
According to several media reports, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had positioned himself as an alternative choice between the Biden/Harris and Trump tickets, plans to throw in the towel on Friday.
(He already pulled out of Arizona on Friday.)
On Wednesday, Kennedy’s campaign announced that he would “address the nation live on Friday about the present historical moment and his path forward.”
BREAKING: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will address the nation on Friday about the “present historical moment and his path forward” pic.twitter.com/sbYAgYLbZe
— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) August 21, 2024
While one isn’t quite sure what RFK Jr. might have to say about the “present historical moment,” whenever a candidate talks about their “path forward,” that’s not usually a euphemism for a speech in which he or she lays out the route to electoral victory.
In addition, ABC News noted that RFK Jr.’s running mate, Silicon Valley lawyer and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan, said on a podcast Tuesday that the campaign was in discussions with the campaign of GOP nominee Donald Trump.
Shanahan said that the discussions had touched upon the possibility of RFK Jr. endorsing Trump in exchange for a role in a second Trump administration, were he to win.
She also said, according to Newsweek, that there was the possibility the two would “walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump” to ensure Harris does not win in November.
(Reports overwhelmingly suggest he’ll pull out of the race Friday, and likely endorse Trump.)
“One possible scenario being discussed is for Kennedy to appear on stage with Trump at an event in Phoenix on Friday, though the sources cautioned that Kennedy’s thinking could always change and sources close to Trump say no plan for Friday is finalized,” ABC News reported.
“Kennedy’s campaign manager, Amaryllis Fox, emailed senior staff on Wednesday morning thanking them for their hard work — but indicated a decision on the way forward had not been made, a source familiar with the email told ABC News.
“There are a couple potential paths forward, not only two, and I can bear witness to the care, examination that Bobby has invested in the consideration of each,” Fox said in the email.
Kennedy and his team had initially reached out to the Harris campaign about the possibility of a role in the administration last week, but, according to The Washington Post, was rebuffed.
Meanwhile, Axios reported earlier this week that Trump was open to a role for RFK Jr. in his administration.
While it’s unclear what he’ll do during his Friday media briefing, NBC News has reported that RFK Jr. will use the occasion to throw his endorsement behind Donald Trump.
The timing couldn’t be better for Trump; while RFK Jr. has polled in the low- to middle-single digits over the past few months, he had been in double digits.
Furthermore, the common wisdom was that an RFK Jr. candidacy would be a gift to either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris (depending on which month it was), the same way that Ralph Nader was a gift to George W. Bush in the 2000 election. With that gift out the way, things might look a lot hairier for the Harris’ chances in close swing states.
Consider NBC News‘ data, which foud that “Republicans like Kennedy more than Democrats do.”
“That’s clear from the national NBC News poll. In January, Kennedy held net-positive ratings from Republicans (+18) and independents (+4), while Democrats viewed him mostly negatively (-25),” the outlet reported Thursday.
“The spread has only gotten starker since then. Fast forward to July’s NBC News poll — conducted before Biden’s exit — when Kennedy was in positive territory with only Republican voters (+11), while he was negative among independents (-18) and Democrats (-38).”
Furthermore, NBC noted that “Kennedy attracts almost all of Trump’s third-party defectors.
“July’s national NBC News poll also shows how the ballot changes from one with just the two major nominees to an expanded ballot that includes Kennedy,” the outlet said.
It added: “In that poll — which, again, was taken before Biden’s exit — Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 points among registered voters, 45% to 43%, with 12% wanting another candidate or unsure about their vote.”
“And when third-party candidates were included, Trump’s lead grew to 3 points, 40% to 37%, with Kennedy getting 10%, Jill Stein (Green Party) 3%, Chase Olive (Libertarian) 2% and Cornel West 1%,” NBC noted. “In that six-way ballot, Trump kept 87% of the voters who backed him in the head-to-head contest, while 10% of his voters went to Kennedy, 1% went to Stein and 1% went to West.
“By contrast, Biden kept 85% of his two-way support, while 6% went to Kennedy, 3% to Stein, 2% to Oliver and 1% to West.”
Since Harris replaced Biden atop the ticket, not much has changed; with Kennedy out of the equation, more RFK Jr. voters went for Trump than for Kamala.
What this means remains to be seen; third-party candidates often see their polling numbers sink like a stone as the election season goes on. (See: Johnson, Gary.)
However, for all the talk of “vibes” and “joy” atop the Democratic ticket these days, polls still show razor-thin margins, usually with Trump barely ahead.
Furthermore, as The Associated Press noted, RFK Jr.’s appeal wasn’t exactly a result of his policy proposals, but the fact that neither candidate seemed to satisfy voters: “A Pew Research Center poll from July found that about half of voters who were supporting Kennedy said the main reason they backed him was because he was neither Biden nor Trump, compared with about 3 in 10 who listed Kennedy’s characteristics or policies.”
Harris has picked up some of RFK Jr.’s women and minority support, but that’s already baked into the polls. If he drops out entirely, the rest of Kennedy’s supporters — likely the Trump-leaning ones — are going to go back to the GOP camp.
Whether or not this plays out in Trump’s favor remains to be seen, however. As Newsweek noted, polls in swing states tended to show the GOP nominee doing better with third-party candidates included. However, this arguably could be the result of Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has tapped into activist anger over Israel’s war with Hamas.
While RFK’s poll numbers may indeed be relatively small, so are the margins that states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. A 2 percent shift in a race where important states will decided by less than that is going to keep Harris staffers up at night.
Now, granted, we have less of an idea of what RFK Jr. will do on Friday than the worm in his brain does. If reports are correct, however, this could spell real trouble for the Harris campaign. At the very least, it’s a bit of rain at the end of the “joyful” parade that was the Democratic National Convention.
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