Poll: Trump Now Ahead of Biden, But Within Margin of Error, in 7 Battleground States
President Donald Trump, who is currently hospitalized after testing positive for the coronavirus, leads Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with likely voters in eight battleground states and with the national popular vote.
The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll released on Monday found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump while 45 percent support Biden.
That represents a statistical tie, as it is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points with regard to the national popular vote.
A national lead four weeks before the Nov. 3 election is good news for Trump, but there is more good news for the president.
The real story in the poll lies with a number of key swing states.
Trump, who was hospitalized on Friday after testing positive for the coronavirus, holds an edge in the key battleground states by a total margin of four points.
1) BREAKING: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE POLL SHOWS TRUMP LEADING NATIONALLY, IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES, AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE
NATIONAL (Trump +1)
Trump 46
Biden 456 BATTLEGROUNDS of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI (Trump +4)
Trump 47
Biden 43TRUMP’S APPROVAL: 50%https://t.co/T9JxFp2mXI
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 3, 2020
In Florida, Trump leads Biden within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters in the Sunshine State.
Likewise, in Minnesota, which Trump narrowly lost in 2016 by about 45,000 votes, he leads Biden 46 percent to 44 percent, with 450 likely voters (with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points).
In New Hampshire, which Trump also lost in 2016 (by fewer than 3,000 votes), he leads Biden within a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent.
2) BATTLEGROUND STATES:
Florida
Trump 48
Biden 44Minnesota
Trump 46
Biden 44New Hampshire
Trump 45
Biden 43— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 3, 2020
Trump also has leads in Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and could nab a split Electoral College vote in Maine. In those swing states, the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
On the issue of the Electoral College, the poll projects Trump to clean house in November.
The Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll projects Trump could grab 320 Electoral College votes. He would only need 270 to win a second term.
Biden is projected by the poll to fall short with only 218 Electoral College votes.
The Electoral College is, of course, the only number that matters.
3) ELECTORAL PROJECTION
Trump 320
Biden 218— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 3, 2020
The Democracy Institute poll was conducted partially following Trump’s Friday hospitalization at Walter Reed Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland.
The poll, on that subject, found that more than six in 10 of 500 likely voters expressed sympathy or concern for the president, at 62 percent.
The remaining 38 percent of those polled called trump’s contracting the virus “karma.”
Still, 19 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote for Trump’s re-election after the COVID-19 diagnosis, compared to 13 percent who answered the diagnosis makes them less likely to vote for Trump.
The coronavirus pandemic, broadly, is not the chief concern for the majority of voters.
Law and order, specifically related to the left’s months of rioting, was the most prominent issue for a plurality of likely voters.
Of those surveyed, 32 percent said that order following the riots was the most important issue, while the economy was not far behind.
Thirty percent of those polled said the economy was their biggest concern.
Trump leads Biden on the economy 60 percent to 40 percent, and 63 percent approve of his job regarding law and order.
A few other takeaways:
Trump is polling at 18 percent with black voters and 40 percent with Hispanic voters.
Sixty-one percent of all respondents feel Trump will be re-elected.
Seventy percent of respondents feel the economy is rebounding after economic damage done by coronavirus shutdowns.
Nationwide violent protests led 28 percent of respondents to say they are more likely to vote for Trump.
Sixty-eight percent said Biden has not been “sufficiently critical” of rioting.
An overwhelming 75 percent of respondents also said they do not support defunding their local police departments.
The national poll surveyed 1,500 likely voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2 by mobile phones and landlines.
PollWatch, which tracks election polling and accuracy, noted that Democracy Institute correctly predicted both Brexit and Trump’s 2016 election upset of Hillary Clinton.
On Biden’s poor numbers with black likely voters, Democracy Institute Director Patrick Basham said that “low support and enthusiasm” will be Biden’s “Achilles’ Heel.”
“To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best,” Basham said.
The Democracy Institute poll is excellent news for Trump, who is still on the mend at Walter Reed, where he has enjoyed enthusiastic support outside and sniping from untrustworthy establishment media reporters online.
Ignore national suppression polls, such as the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which was released Sunday and claimed Biden leads Trump nationally by 14 points.
NBC/WSJ polled only registered voters following last week’s two-on-one debate debacle in Cleveland.
If the Democracy Institute polling is even moderately accurate, the 2020 race is over.
That is, of course, barring any additional October surprises and the addition of countless and potentially fraudulent insecure mail-in ballots.
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