Poll: House Toss-Up as Republicans Pull Within 5 Seats of Democrats
In the RealClearPolitics continuing analysis of the final days before the midterm elections, the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is tightening as formerly undecided voters start to reveal their preferences.
The trend began early this month, when Democrats were favored to win 206 seats to the Republicans’ 189.
As of Oct. 2, there were also 40 seats considered up for grabs. That number has dropped to 32 as of the most recent update on Monday — largely to the benefit of the Republican Party.
Though Democrats are still the favorites in 204 House races, Republicans are now expected to take 199.
Linking to the new report, Wall Street Journal columnist Kimberly Strassel shared her analysis on Twitter, calling the House of Representatives a toss-up ahead of next month’s elections.
House is now a tossup, as Rs pull within 5 seats of Ds. https://t.co/6A2Nx0WUD1
— Kimberley Strassel (@KimStrassel) October 29, 2018
Analysis by FiveThirtyEight still shows an overwhelming likelihood that Democrats will regain control of the lower chamber.
With a model that shows Democrats with a 9 percent lead in the popular vote, the latest report on Tuesday gives the party an 85.7 percent chance of gaining enough seats to win majority control.
President Donald Trump has planned campaign rallies in many districts where a Republican-held seat is potentially in jeopardy.
Republicans are counting on his popularity within the party to draw voters to the polls on Nov. 6.
On the other side of the aisle, many Democrats are hoping Trump’s rhetoric will allow them to appeal to enough disaffected Republicans to put them over the top on Election Day.
As CNN reported, Kim Schrier, a Democrat running to represent Washington’s 8th District in the next congressional session, cited Trump directly in a recent campaign message.
“Our president even tried to tie terrorists from the Middle East with the caravan,” she said. “It’s like bringing up all of these buzzwords to stir up a frenzy in their base.”
Schrier predicted the president’s message could have the opposite effect — particularly among some Republican women in the district.
“We all teach our kids that we’re better than this,” she said. “That kind of rhetoric is unacceptable, and I’m hoping it brings a lot of those people out, saying, ‘No. We don’t tolerate this divisiveness and whipping up a frenzy.'”
Schrier said she believes a lot of women “voted somewhat reluctantly for our president and would like to see some brakes on the rhetoric.”
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