PAC Supporting Another Media-Hyped GOP Trump Rival Reports Spending Cuts: 'Aren't Going to Waste Our Money'
I subscribe to Politico’s nightly email newsletter, in part because I’m a political junkie and in part because I love seeing how often the liberal political junkies’ outlet of choice can get Republican politics so wrong so often.
Thus, I had to have a good laugh at the email headline to Monday’s nightly dispatch: “Nikki Haley rising.”
“After months of parsing polls and debate performances, we’ve got some fresh data on the state of the 2024 presidential race,” the open read. “The latest Federal Election Commission reports offer a revealing look at the financial vigor of the various Republican campaigns, letting us see who’s minting money and who’s sputtering. The quarterly filings also underscore an emerging campaign storyline — Nikki Haley is on a trajectory to become the Trump alternative.”
I laughed at this not only because Haley has become what feels like the 34th “Trump alternative” that Politico has identified as being on a swift trajectory to Trump alternative-dom. No, I laughed because I read the email newsletter right after I’d finished reading a piece about how one of the super PACs backing what felt like the 26th or 27th “Trump alternative” Politico had touted (it’s so hard to keep count of these things) was cutting back on ad buys because it wasn’t “going to waste our money.”
According to The Washington Post article, a memo from Trust in the Mission PAC, which supports South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, told donors that while it would “fully fund” other campaign activities, mass media advertising was basically setting money on fire at this point.
“We aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative,” wrote PAC co-chair Rob Collins in the memo.
“We have done the research. We have studied the focus groups. We have been following Tim on the trail. This electorate is locked up and money spent on mass media isn’t going to change minds until we get a lot closer to voting.”
The PAC would, however, “fully fund our grassroots door knocking, conduit fundraising, event hosting, and earned media efforts.”
In short, trying to boost Scott’s image and recognition via the most efficient avenue to do so is pointless because nobody is all that interested — so they’re waving the white flag, at least temporarily. But thanks for donating, everyone!
The Post’s Marianne LeVine and Maeve Reston noted that “[t]he dramatic move to pull back on ad spending is an acknowledgment of the South Carolina Republican’s struggle to build a viable base of support in the race. Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, is running on a message of hope and optimism as well as his life story.”
“But despite his cash advantage over rivals to Trump — entering the race with $22 million from his Senate campaign — and the millions he has spent on ads, the senator has yet to break through.”
This is kind of incredible because, back during the summer, Scott was Politico’s favorite Republican — eclipsing the Republican generally considered Trump’s strongest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Just before the first major event of the GOP primary season — the Family Leader forum in Des Moines, Iowa — Politico ran a piece titled, “Top donors, souring on DeSantis, start looking at Tim Scott.”
“Many high-dollar donors in Trump’s native New York City have tired of the former president and worry about his general election chances. But they say their faith in the Florida governor has been shaken by early campaign missteps and his hardline positions on abortion, transgender rights and other culture-war issues. They fear time is running out for anyone else to break through,” Politico’s Sally Goldenberg and Natalie Allison reported in July.
“Now, several donors are starting to more seriously mull backing Scott — a more traditional Republican alternative to the populist and combative Trump and DeSantis,” Politico noted, adding that: “Since before he formally announced his run, Scott has been attempting to combat a narrative that, as a genial 57-year-old senator, he is running for vice president. He and his top aides have vehemently denied that notion, while his team is spending millions of dollars on television advertisements in Iowa and New Hampshire to raise his name recognition with voters.”
That spend, the super PAC announced during the summer, amounted to $40 million reserved for ads — both televised and digital — in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Well, that hasn’t helped much. According to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate as of Tuesday morning, Scott sits at 2.0 percent — just 56.1 percentage points behind former President Donald Trump’s 58.1 percent. DeSantis is at 13.1 percent; Haley is at 7.7 percent.
So now, as Politico touts Haley’s rise, this was a Politico headline on Tuesday regarding the previous shiny new GOP object: “Scott’s super PAC cancels TV ad reservations as campaign sputters.”
“Scott was once seen by high-dollar GOP donors and some Republican consultants as one of the top alternatives to Trump, should DeSantis’ momentum fizzle out,” Politico’s Allison wrote (no Sally Goldenberg on this byline). “DeSantis’ polling lead over his non-Trump rivals has indeed all but vanished, though Haley is now the one with the attention of top Republican financiers desperately trying to stop Trump from securing the nomination — a task that remains a longshot.”
Now, to be perfectly fair, Haley is slightly better positioned at this juncture than Scott is — 5.7 points ahead of him in the RealClearPolitics aggregate and within shouting distance of DeSantis anyway. According to The Hill, she also raised $11 million in the third quarter, ahead of Scott’s $6 million but behind DeSantis’ $15 million.
However, this misses the point the same way Politico has missed the bloody obvious since day one of this campaign: The concept of the “Trump alternative,” once DeSantis started crashing, didn’t really exist. There was no “lane” for someone polling at 5 percent to sign up some big-name donors, drop a bunch of PAC cash in early states, and — bam! — suddenly be neck-and-neck with Trump.
The former president has maintained a comfortable lead even at the height of DeSantis’ popularity, and he’s now 45 percentage points clear of everyone. Short of an epic electoral collapse that would make the rise and fall of Howard Dean in 2004 look quaint and quotidian by comparison, the mythical “Trump alternative” is a storyline in search of an actual story.
Even DeSantis faced an uphill battle despite his momentum after his overwhelming re-election in the Sunshine State in November 2022 — and once that momentum dissipated, political junkies and media apparatchiks in search of anything to write about besides Donald Trump’s polling successes leaped from “alternatives” like Scott to Vivek Ramaswamy to even Chris Christie for a day or two. (Pour one out for the editors who had to suppress their laughter as they put the finishing touches on those pieces.)
Read those words again, Politico writers: “We aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative.”
That’s a super PAC backing the guy who you previously said was on course to be the “Trump alternative.” Save yourself some time: Write exactly the same piece you wrote about Tim Scott’s PAC, put Nikki Haley’s name in all the places Scott’s name was — then just fill in the relevant details, numbers and quotes when the inevitable sputtering starts.
With all that time saved, your staff can doubtlessly find the next “Trump alternative” to tout when the last “alternative” turned out to be no alternative at all.
Doug Burg-mentum, anyone?
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