New York Times' Election Eve Polling Bombshell Met with Well-Earned Skepticism
A New York Times poll released Sunday indicates that a blue wave — indeed, a tsunami — is coming in almost every major contested Senate race.
However, the poll is drawing skepticism, particularly among those who remember the variance in the polls in past cycles and who question the role of such polls in suppressing voter turnout among Republicans.
The Times/Siena survey found that not only were the Democrats ahead in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, but that the leads were significant in states generally considered safe for Republicans.
In Texas, the poll says that state Rep. James Talarico has pulled out a 50-43 lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Meanwhile, in Kansas — where Donald Trump won by 16 points two years ago and carried all but five counties — Democrat Adam Hamilton has a lead over incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, 49-44.
Other races that leaned toward Democrats at the beginning of the cycle but which were considered toss-ups thanks to flawed candidates were also reaches for Republicans, according to the poll.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed supposedly holds a 53-42 edge over former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, despite El-Sayed’s alleged connections with terrorist groups and weakness among black and Jewish voters in the state.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, which means it only barely captured whatever effect El-Sayed’s main Democratic rival in the primary — U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens — had by crossing party lines and endorsing Rogers on Sunday.
In Maine, where former state Senate President Troy Jackson became the replacement nominee after primary winner Graham Platner was forced to withdraw amid numerous allegations of sexual misconduct, Jackson still leads incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins 51-45.
Jackson has faced his own controversies, particularly regarding his temperament during his time in the state legislature, and a poor debate performance, in which he came across as irascible, didn’t seem to help his cause.
Nevertheless, all but two of the contested races — Michigan and Texas — were within the margin of error.
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in almost all of the seven battleground states that will determine which party controls the Senate, according to the final set of polls from The New York Times and Siena University before the midterm elections. https://t.co/uD18833OId
— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 2, 2026
There was also the matter of how accurate New York Times polling has been in the past when it involves races with national import, particularly in the 2024 presidential election — as journalist Ryan Saavedra noted:
Here’s The New York Times’ final 2024 poll: https://t.co/l6BSjGxNiI
— Ryan Saavedra (@RyanSaavedra) November 2, 2026
Trump won all seven of those states, despite the fact that The New York Times had Democratic nominee Kamala Harris ahead in four of them.
@nytimes Ahead in seven battleground states? Hm where have I heard that before
— McKenna R. James (@McKennaRJames) November 2, 2026
In addition, social media users questioned whether the polling was biased in service of a goal — namely, to dampen Republican enthusiasm.
The NY Times has Trans Talarico winning by 7 points and Muslim Jihadist El Sayed winning by double digits.
This is voter suppression.
— Pino Americano (@PinoAmericano) November 2, 2026
@nytimes Polls mean nothing-why do you keep pumping them after your disastrous takes in the past?
— Wendy Kortepeter (@WKortepeter) November 2, 2026
The New York Times itself noted that “blue-collar white voters have proved particularly hard to reach in polls, and polling error has previously been among the highest in that demographic, a large group in all seven states.”
That group would lean most strongly toward Trump and the Republicans.
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The survey also doesn’t include North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has been ahead in most polls and which many Republicans consider a lost cause.
Flipping the Michigan seat, held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, was considered one way to counter this, particularly given El-Sayed’s relative weakness in prior polling in what would normally be an easy hold.
If the poll results are accurate, however, it would mean the Democrats would hold a 54-46 advantage in the Senate for the rest of Trump’s term, making it difficult to confirm Cabinet nominees or judges.
It would also mean that any unexpected vacancy on the Supreme Court would almost certainly not be filled by the current White House.
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