New Poll Shows Michelle Obama as Only Potential Democratic Candidate Beating Trump
Former first lady Michelle Obama polled the best among potential Democratic presidential candidates against former President Donald Trump should President Joe Biden choose to step aside.
There have been increasing calls for Biden to not seek a second term following his dismal debate performance against Trump last week.
This prompted Reuters/Ipsos to conduct a survey and see how potential replacements would fare against the presumptive Republican nominee, as well as where Biden stands now in the race.
According to the polling group, Obama would defeat Trump 50 to 39 percent, but the 45th president would best all other likely Biden replacements.
He would win over Vice President Kamala Harris 43 to 42 percent, California Gov. Gavin Newsom 42 to 39 percent, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer 41 to 36 percent, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear 40 to 36 percent, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker 40 to 34 percent.
Of all the possible Democratic candidates, only Michelle Obama could beat Trump in the election – Reuters/Ipsos poll
50% of respondents would support the candidacy of the ex-president’s wife, and in this case 30% are ready to vote for Trump. pic.twitter.com/yOhltSzU6v
— Mike (@Doranimated) July 3, 2024
Finally, according to the pollsters, Biden would tie Trump, with each garnering 40 percent of the vote.
Ipsos noted this was slight decline for Biden who was ahead 41 to 39 percent over his Republican rival in May.
The 40-40 tie in the polling may indicate that the survey sample skews left because Trump has been ahead of Biden in the Real Clear Polling average for months.
Further, a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted post debate has Trump ahead 49 to 41 percent, nationally among registered voters.
A Wall Street Journal poll published Wednesday also finds Trump with 6 percentage point lead 48 to 42 percent among registered voters, with 80 percent saying Biden, at 81, is too old to be running for a second term.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted using 1,070 U.S. residents, including 892 registered voters, which may also explain why it shows a tighter race.
Obama has stated in the past that she has no interest in running for president.
“As former first lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president,” communication’s director Crystal Carson told NBC News in March.
“Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ re-election campaign,” she added.
But have circumstances changed enough post debate to cause Obama to reconsider her choice?
In January, she was alarmed that Trump could win a second term.
“What’s going to happen in this next election? I am terrified about what could possibly happen because our leaders matter,” she said.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama says fears about the 2024 election are some of what keeps her up at night:
“What’s going to happen in this next election? I am terrified about what could possibly happen. Because our leaders matter.” pic.twitter.com/NcNZeyzP1G
— The Recount (@therecount) January 8, 2024
As first lady, and certainly a former first lady, she has been able to stay largely above the political fray.
Once Obama entered the race and began taking positions on issues that impact people’s lives, she would likely lose some support.
She has often stated that she hates politics, and one gets the sense that she really does not want to be president.
A hypothetical worth considering is Obama agrees to be at the top of the ticket and then runs with Harris, Newsom, Beshear or one of the others, who want to be president. They ride Obama’s popularity into the White House.
She serves a short time and then steps down for whatever reason: health, family, needs of the hour …
Obama would lose some standing among the American people for not seeing the job through, but Democrats would feel like she did them a solid by defeating Trump.
Is it a likely scenario? Probably not, but it’s possible.
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