Latest Poll Shows Statistical 3-Way Tie Atop the Race for the Democratic Nomination: Biden, Warren, Sanders Deadlocked
A new poll reveals the race to take on President Donald Trump as the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee could be tightening.
The result of a Monmouth University poll conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 3 show that former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren both have 23 percent support among 345 registered voters who either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
With 20 percent support, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is not far behind. Because Monmouth said the margin of error for the responses was plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, the results essentially show a three-way statistical tie for the lead.
New Monmouth national poll. Oct 30-Nov 3 +/- 3.4
(With change from Sept)Biden 23% (-2)
Warren 23% (-5)
Sanders 20% (+5)
Buttigieg 9% (+4)
Harris 5% (-)
Booker 3% (+2)
Yang 3% (+1)
Klobuchar 2% (+1)Everyone else at 1% or below.
— Musadiq Bidar (@Bidar411) November 6, 2019
Both Biden and Warren got better results the last time Monmouth conducted the poll, though Sanders’ support appears to have increased since then.
Warren led the field with 28 percent support in Monmouth’s September poll, followed by Biden with 25 percent and Sanders with 15 percent.
In both polls, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in fourth, though his support has increased 4 points since September from 5 percent to 9 percent.
The results of the most recent poll are similar to those garnered in August when Warren and Sanders each had 20 percent support, followed by Biden with 19 percent.
“It is interesting that these results look a lot like what was considered an outlier poll back in August,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a news release.
“But the current numbers are not an outlier with other recent national polls being all over the place,” he added.
“This is just another reminder that there is no such thing as a national primary,” Murray said. “Most of the voters we talk to right now are not really anchoring their choices to an actual election decision just yet.”
Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters were also asked to rate — on a scale of one to 10 — the Democratic candidates’ chances of beating Trump in the general election.
Biden received the highest average “electability” score — at 7.3 — followed by Warren at 7.1, Sanders at 7.0, California Sen. Kamala Harris at 5.5 and Buttigieg at 5.3.
Interesting finding from new Monmouth poll: Democratic voters nationally now think both Warren and Sanders are as “electable” as Biden.
On a 1 to 10 scale, Warren’s at 7.1, up from 6.4 in June.
Sanders is at 7.0, up from 6.5.
Biden is at 7.3, down from 7.7. pic.twitter.com/TM8R3VyXYN
— Kevin Robillard (@Robillard) November 6, 2019
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, there are three clear Democratic front-runners, with Buttigieg in a distant fourth place.
Biden has 28.6 percent support nationwide in the polling average, followed by Warren with 21.4 percent, Sanders with 18.1 percent and Buttigieg with 7.1 percent.
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