Kamala Harris' Lead Vanishes, Hit Hard by New Polls as Trump's Momentum Takes Over
New polling shows that Vice President Kamala Harris’ slight lead over former President Donald Trump in battleground states has evaporated, despite nearly a solid month of positive media coverage since entering the race.
Previous polling by the Cook Political Report published last week had Harris ahead of Trump in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Axios.
Similarly a New York Times/Siena College poll, also released last week, found Harris with a slight lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
However, a newer survey conducted by Navigator Research published Tuesday shows the race is essentially tied across Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Broken down individually, Trump is ahead of Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46 to 45 percent) and two points in Pennsylvania (46 to 44 percent), while the other three states are tied.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to Aug. 8 among 600 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Navigator survey is consistent with the RealClear Polling average of battleground states, which also includes Nevada and Georgia.
As of Aug. 21, Trump holds a 0.2 percent combined advantage over Harris across the seven states.
Trump is leading in all but Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris holds a 1 percentage point lead and 2 point lead, respectively.
The vice president is polling better than President Joe Biden was in the battleground state before he exited the race last month.
Trump held a more than a 4 percent lead across the seven states in the RCP average and his advantage had been growing when Biden’s departure was announced July 21.
CNN analyst and former Obama administration official Van Jones expressed concern about how close the race is Monday night at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
“We don’t want to be tied. I don’t like being tied with Donald Trump, because we’ve had now 20-plus days of positive press,” he said. “We should not be tied. We want to pull ahead. That’s our opportunity this week.”
Watch CNN’s @VanJones68 say its “scary” that Kamala Harris and President Trump are “tied” in the polls despite nonstop “positive press” from the corporate media.
The Kamala polling sugar high will be over soon. pic.twitter.com/KKWmwQgK3p
— Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) August 19, 2024
CNN political reporter David Urban added, “This campaign, the Harris campaign, has been flawless for the past 28, 30 days, and it’s a tied race.”
“That’s scary. We’ve got to go,” Jones interjected.
“They’re doing the best they can, and it’s tied. That’s really important,” Urban said.
Former Barack Obama presidential campaign strategist David Axelrod shared a similar sentiment on CNN Sunday night, while acknowledging Harris is doing better than Biden was.
“[T]hings have changed dramatically,” he said. “But this is still a very competitive race. If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win. And I think it may well be President Trump because it’s an Electoral College fight.”
Nationally, as of Aug. 21, Harris has a 1.6 percentage point lead over Trump in the RealClear Polling average. On the same date in 2020, Biden led Trump by 7.6 percent, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton was beating him by 5.3 percent.
Axelrod further explained, “Remember, Joe Biden won by 7 million votes nationally, nationally last time, and a margin of 45,000 votes, or 44,000 votes in the three closest battleground states combined.”
So, Trump is sitting in a significantly better position in 2024 than he was in 2020.
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