GOP Needs About 20 Seats To Take House & There Are 30 Vulnerable Democrats
Republicans are looking at the impeachment process launched by House Democrats as a stepping stone for regaining control of the House.
Democrats came out of the 2018 elections with a House majority, holding 235 seats. Due to changes since that time, Democrats currently hold a 233-197 edge over Republicans, with four vacancies and one independent. That total does not include Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, who has said he plans to change his enrollment to Republican for the next election.
Winning a majority requires 218 seats in the 435-member House, meaning that Republicans need to win about 20 seats — while holding their current ones — to take control.
One factor that plays into the political calculations is the support received by President Donald Trump in 2016. According to The Hill, 31 districts held by Democrats were won by Trump in 2016, including 13 where he defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by six or more points. That overall total was reduced to 30 by Van Drew’s switch. Those districts are key to Republican hopes in 2020.
“For the Democrats running in those 30 Trump districts, they now need to tell their constituents why they voted against their vote for president, and I think that’s going to be a very difficult argument to make, especially with President Trump on the ballot,” National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesman Michael McAdams told The Hill.
McAdams said Democrats are in a “tricky position” because impeachment energized Republicans while failing to attract widespread support among independent voters.
House Minority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana said moderate Democrats will be distancing themselves from impeachment in an effort to survive politically.
“There are a lot of Democrats today who voted for people who can’t go back home and explain that vote, and I will challenge them if they’re getting a lot of people criticizing their vote, I would challenge them to invite Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff to explain what was done today,” Scalise said following the impeachment vote.
Republicans will have to overcome one hurdle. To date, 25 GOP members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election in 2020.
But that does not worry Republican Rep. Guy Reschenthaler of Pennsylvania.
“Let Nancy Pelosi hold the articles of impeachment, because the longer this drags out, the more swing voters and independents are coming to Republicans in droves,” Reschenthaler said Thursday on the Fox News program “The Story with Martha MacCallum,” according to Fox News.
That led him to make a prediction.
“I know some people think it’s a bold statement but I really do think we’re going to take back the House in 2020,” he said.
“And, I think President Trump is going to win because the polls are showing that independents are tired of impeachment, they think it’s a sham and they know that it’s a political hit job.”
Reschenthaler said impeachment “is totally backfiring on the Democrats and I think Nancy Pelosi let this get way out in front of her.”
“We have to remember that the far-left social-justice Democrats are running this party now but we are seeing that Trump is up in my home state of Pennsylvania. He’s leading the Democrat contenders, sometimes by double digits … and in all those battlegrounds where Democrats hold seats where Trump won, I think we can get a lot of those seats back and take back the House in 2020.”
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