Everything Is Riding on the Sept. 10 Debate: Why Trump Needs to Win
To date, there have been 35 televised debates between major party presidential nominees in the United States. Number 36 could be the most important in American history.
Yes, the very first debate was key in shaping voters’ opinions of John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, so much so that it’s credited with propelling JFK to victory.
Yes, then-President Gerald Ford was closing on Jimmy Carter before the second debate and likely had his momentum stalled by a gaffe in which he claimed that “there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration.”
And, yes, the 35th debate was so monumental — and so monumentally bad for one candidate — that, for the first time in presidential debate history, the second debate will feature a different candidate than the first one, President Joe Biden having self-immolated all pretexts to mental competency back in June.
That being said, when former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris meet for the first time on Sept. 10, it’ll be even more important — and Trump needs to emerge victorious.
To analyze why, we need to analyze how we got here, in the middle of August, where a race that tilted toward Trump has suddenly become a toss-up, with Kamala Harris seeming to have all of the momentum.
In the immediate aftermath of the June 27 debate, it became clear that whatever media figures were willing to paint a fig leaf over President Biden’s declining mental state were unwilling to keep doing so. So, too, were many Democrats, who began turning slowly but steadily against the current president’s attempt to secure another term.
However, Biden still held all the chips, having secured the nomination by running virtually unopposed in all of the primaries. And he wasn’t willing to go, from all appearances, telling donors that he was “done talking about the debate” and that it was time to stop focusing on his mental acuity and “put Trump in a bullseye.” (Unwise words, considering what later happened to Trump.) He said in an early July interview with George Stephanopoulos that only the “Lord Almighty” could get him to quit.
I don’t have God’s detailed flight plans, but apparently He made a visit to either Washington, D.C., or Rehoboth Beach, Delaware between July 5, when that interview was given, and July 21, when Biden essentially broke up with America via text message:
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
Now, common wisdom had it that Joe Biden was only running because Vice President Kamala Harris was too far-left to win swing states and too gaffe-prone to redefine herself. And those two things are still indeed true: She still likely believes in the radical positions she held when she ran for president four years ago, and she’s not too much different from the deer-in-headlights woman who delivered whoppers like these:
Kamala Harris explains the Ukraine/Russia conflict:
“Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country.” pic.twitter.com/QYPLJ02mDy
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) March 1, 2022
Some more inspirational words from our vice president pic.twitter.com/OKd9OOawVV
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) March 1, 2022
HARRIS: “We’ve been to the border. So this whole thing about the border.”
Harris: “We’ve been to the border.”
Harris: “We’ve been to the border.”
HOLT: “You haven’t been to the border.”
Harris: “I… and I haven’t been to Europe.” https://t.co/dftSFsU88F pic.twitter.com/Q6pIdXQqPs— Caleb Howe (@CalebHowe) June 8, 2021
What Republicans didn’t count on was a four-part strategy on the part of the Harris campaign.
First, rebrand Kamala as a Bidenesque moderate. Whatever she said four years ago, one can guarantee she professes to hold a more centrist position now that she’s the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Second, make sure to stick to carefully scripted remarks off a teleprompter. No interviews, no media briefings, no moment that isn’t carefully curated by a campaign.
Third, make sure that those comments are delivered before mega-rallies where musicians and other Democratic functionaries entertain the crowd and get them to turn out. Keep saying that Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, are “joyful warriors,” almost as if this was more of a Hubert Humphrey cosplay session than an actual campaign.
Finally, count on the media to play along with all of this, or else the jig is up.
Republicans could have predicted the first three points in their sleep, but the fourth point seemed a bridge too far for even them to consider. After all, Harris was second-in-command for a man who proved himself to be so mentally infirm on a debate stage that he had to step aside. She was part of a White House that kept on saying that “democracy is on the ballot” — a not-so-subtle way to call their opponent dictatorial — up until Trump was shot by a would-be assassin. Surely she couldn’t get away with ignoring the media, right? Right?
Yet again, we hoped for too much from the establishment media. This is now the great “vibes” election of 2024. Republicans are “weird!” Kamala is “brat!” Don’t ask for an explanation of any of that! Welcome to Kamala Brat Summer, y’all!
Like it or not, it’s working, too.
Harris has virtually erased whatever lead Trump had built up in the polls, not just nationally but in swing states. While the legacy media have begun to push back on the lack of access, they’re careful not to push back too hard, lest they do Republicans any favors. And Donald Trump, for a variety of reasons, has been unable to alter this narrative.
We can debate whether the polls accurately reflect reality or whether Trump’s problems since Biden’s recusal are of his own making, but that’s hardly the point right now. With Harris likely to only start doing interviews at the beginning of September, just before the debates, the onus is on Trump and his people to stem the tide.
And how should they do this? By letting Harris hoist herself on her own petard, just as Joe Biden did.
The reason why Harris is such an unlikely contender is that, when it comes to cogency and thinking on her feet, she’s basically Joe Biden without the excuse of age. And, if you look back at the most memorable moments from the June debate, almost none of them actually involved Trump.
In fact, the Trump campaign put out an advertisement shortly following the debate which was nothing but a minute and a half of Biden’s ramblings:
Needless to say, the drugs didn’t work. pic.twitter.com/3lYHnU476w
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) June 28, 2024
No Trump involved. The Republican nominee was unusually reticent and intensely disciplined during the debate, letting Biden score own goals all he wanted. The most devastating quote from Trump, in fact, was just one sentence remarking on how preposterously bad the sitting president’s performance was: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence; I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”
That discipline needs to carry over into the second contest. While debating Harris won’t be as easy as with Biden, it also won’t be mind-bendingly difficult — unless Trump makes it hard for himself.
Keep in mind that the debate will likely be the first time Kamala gets out from under the hermetically sealed “vibes” bubble and has to answer adversarial questions. Trump should ask them, sit back, and watch the dumpster fire begin to glow. While it may not burn as brightly as it did when Biden went up in flames, if it burns enough, the media can’t ignore it in favor of “vibes” reporting any longer.
Yes, the fact this is a coin-flip of a race is quite improbable. But facts are facts — and the facts are that, if Trump lets Kamala off the stage without showing voters who she really is, America could be in for at least four years of a president just as gaffe-prone and even further left than Joe Biden is. That’s why the first presidential debate between the current candidates is so important: We simply can’t afford that outcome.
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