Analysis: Midterms Look Like They Will Be Worse for Democrats than We Could Have Imagined
For those who are frustrated with the current leadership in Congress, there could be hope just around the corner for Republicans.
Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies told The Washington Examiner that Democrats have the potential to lose 41 House seats, which is 34 more than needed for Republicans to retake the majority.
Former President Donald Trump’s controversial presidency gave Democrats an edge to win the House in 2018 and 2020, and Bolger said he is observing similar patterns with the current White House.
“Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating and, more challenging for him, his strong disapproval ratings are right where Donald Trump’s were just prior to the November 2018 midterm elections, when the party in power lost the House and numerous gubernatorial seats,” Bolger told the outlet.
“I would hate to be in charge of candidate recruitment for Democrats because no Democrat in their right mind and a competitive seat would want to run in this political environment.”
It is typical for the House to switch to the opposing party of the White House halfway through the term, as those dissatisfied with the overall direction of the country are more likely to vote.
Republican campaigns in 2022 will likely center on inflation, illegal immigration and taxes.
Other issues candidates may focus on include Afghanistan and COVID-19, but the rapidly evolving nature of both of these topics could make them irrelevant by Election Day.
John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin, who operate the polling firm McLaughlin & Associates, told the Examiner that Republicans have a slight polling edge.
“In terms of what to expect for the 2022 midterms, our polling of likely voters suggests that Republicans lead the Democrats in the generic vote for Congress 47 percent – 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. This means likely voters are more willing to support a generic group of Republicans rather than a generic group of Democratic candidates for Congress,” they said.
There is a feeling of cautious optimism among Republicans, and analyst Jonathan Zogby told the outlet that the Democrats’ infrastructure bill could give them the victory they need to keep their majorities in both chambers.
“If for some reason they cannot pass a big infrastructure bill, Republicans can focus on a not-so-great economy and Biden’s vaccine mandates, which threaten freedoms and hurt small businesses,” he said.
Democrats still remain fixated on the previous administration and are using their majority to push a radical agenda that will only expand the size of government.
Only moderates such as Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin are holding the line when it comes to keeping the filibuster and stopping a massive $3.5 trillion spending bill from passing.
But conservatives need more cushion in both chambers in order to assure that our liberties are not put at stake even further.
Republicans, however, must not get cocky. They need to continue pushing forward with dynamic messaging in the suburbs and other vulnerable areas.
The midterms will serve as a referendum on the Biden administration and House Democrats’ performance, and Americans are already dismayed with how things have taken a downward turn recently.
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