Poll Shows Surprise Lead for Democrat in Red State Senate Race
As the midterm elections inch closer, the eyes of the country are on several key races. One such race is found deep in the heart of Arizona between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Krysten Sinema.
A survey released Tuesday shows that while the current seat is held by Republicans, the race is leaning in favor of the Democrats.
The new NBC News/ Marist poll shows that Sinema has a small lead in front of her opponent with 48 percent of support from likely voters while McSally trails with 45 percent of support.
This three-point difference between the two candidates falls within the margin of error.
Among all registered voters, Sinema has close to the same lead with 47 percent of support followed by McSally’s 44 percent of support.
Things get even more interesting when voters were asked who they would support if Green Party candidate Angela Green was thrown on the ballot. Sinema’s lead slips to 45 percent while McSally comes in with 43 percent of support.
Additionally, the poll delves even further into which groups of people support each candidate. Sinema holds a strong lead with voters under 30, white college graduates, women, Latinos, and Independents.
McSally, on the other hand, holds a very strong lead among Trump supporters as well as men and whites with no college degree.
When it comes to white voters, the two candidates are nearly tied with 48 percent supporting McSally while 47 percent support Sinema.
According to the poll, Sinema enjoys a favorability rating of 46 percent with 33 percent viewing her unfavorably. McSally, however, has a 40 percent favorability rating and 42 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably.
In addition, the Cook Political Group has moved this match-up to a “toss-up.”
Despite a recent Gallup poll that puts Republicans at a 7 year high in favorability ratings, the majority of the likely Arizona voters polled said that they would rather see a Senate controlled by Democrats. Forty-seven percent of likely voters said that they would prefer to see Democrats control the Senate while 44 percent said they would prefer Republicans.
After winning the primary, McSally received an endorsement from President Donald Trump in which he tweeted, “Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!”
Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2018
The winner of the contest will fill the seat being vacated by a retiring Senator Jeff Flake.
The poll was conducted with 950 Arizona residents between September 16-20. The margin of error for all adults was +/- 3.7 percent while the margin of error for registered voters is +/- 4.2 percent. Additionally, the margin of error for likely voters was +/- 4.7 percent.
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