Trump Has Many Paths to Victory: These Are States to Watch
We’re just a few days away from one of the most hotly-contested elections in U.S. history.
The polling between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has remained neck-and-neck up to the finish line.
Many conservatives are no doubt wondering, “What exactly does Trump need to do to win the election?” If you happen to be asking that question going into Tuesday, here’s what you need to know.
The Swing States
As always, the key to the election is garnering 270 electoral votes.
Most pollsters agree both candidates will likely (though not definitely) pick up around 220 electoral votes if the constituents of states that lean or are solid red and blue vote as expected. See the graphic below:
The winner will have to gain roughly 50 additional electoral votes by winning some combination of the seven battleground states in play.
Those states are (in order of importance based on electoral vote totals) Pennsylvania (19 votes), Georgia (16 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes) and Nevada (6 votes).
If Trump does manage to win the presidency on Tuesday, he could do so in one of the following ways.
Path One: The Sun Belt Plus One
Many analysts agree that Trump’s most likely path to victory goes through the Sun Belt.
According to pre-election polls, Trump’s strongest leads in the seven swing states appear to be in Georgia and Arizona.
Winning both states would likely put Trump at 246 electoral votes, only 24 shy of victory. By sweeping the other two Sun Belt states in play, Nevada and North Carolina, Trump’s total would grow to 268.
From there, he would just need to secure one more state — any one of the three Rust Belt swing states. The most likely of these (based on polling averages), depicted in the below scenario, would be Pennsylvania.
Path Two: Stealing the Blue Wall … Again
In 2016, Trump toppled Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by stealing three key “blue wall” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden was able to reclaim those states for the Democratic Party in 2020, but that doesn’t mean Trump can’t steal them back on Tuesday.
Should he do so, Trump just needs to secure one more swing state — other than Nevada — to meet the 270-vote threshold.
The most likely state to go that way, based on current RealClear Polling averages, is Georgia as depicted below.
Path Three: A Razor-Thin Victory – These Are the Three States to Watch
It is entirely possible that Trump barely eeks out a win.
If the former president manages to take Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — the three swing states which carry the most electoral votes — his total will grow to exactly 270 electoral votes.
That’s why on Tuesday, these are the three states voters most need to keep an eye on.
Path Four: An Electoral Tie-Turned-Trump Victory
It is within the cards this election that Tuesday’s race ends in a tie.
This could happen a few different ways, but one such scenario would be if Trump takes the Sun Belt, and Harris holds onto the Rust Belt but loses Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
In this scenario, shown below, both candidates would have 269 electoral votes.
Another potential path to a tie would be if Trump takes Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, but loses Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
If an electoral tie occurs, the House of Representatives would decide the election. Since Republicans have a decided advantage in the House, this would also likely lead to a Trump victory.
Final Thoughts
As noted in a Thursday analysis from The Western Journal, everything is still on the table for this year’s election.
No one honestly knows for sure how this will all play out.
As the day goes on, however, refer back to this article to keep track of how Trump is performing.
Also, stay tuned: The Western Journal will be running a live blog to keep its readers informed (sign up here) all throughout Election Day.
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