Kari Lake Takes Lead in Arizona US Senate Race: Top Pollster
Republican candidate Kari Lake has taken the lead over Rep. Ruben Gallego in the U.S. Senate race in Arizona, according to the most recent polling from a prominent source.
Data Orbital released a poll Tuesday finding Lake with a slight 45.2 to 44.5 percent edge over her Democrat rival.
In terms of the presidential race, Orbital also shows Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris 49.7 percent to 41.9 percent in the Grand Canyon State.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 26-28 with 550 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.26 percent.
📊 ARIZONA POLL: @Data_Orbital
🟥 Trump: 49.7% (+7.8)
🟦 Harris: 41.9%
🟪 Other: 2.0%
——
AZ Senate
🟥 Lake: 45.2% (+0.7)
🟦 Gallego: 44.5%
🟪 Other: 1.6%#8 (2.8/3.0) | 10/26-28 | 550 LV | ±4.26https://t.co/f0qlS4G1kE pic.twitter.com/WGwtGrFNNX
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 29, 2024
The political site Five-Thirty-Eight ranks Orbital among its top 10 pollsters (No. 8 specifically) based on the firm’s “historical track record and methodological transparency.”
Orbital’s findings came on the heels of an Atlas swing state poll published Tuesday also showing the race essentially tie, with Gallego at 48.4 percent and Lake at 47.9 percent.
Atlas surveyed 1,458 likely voters from Oct. 25 to 29. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Overall the Real Clear Polling average of polls, going back to early October gives Gallego a 5.7 percent advantage, but the Orbital and Atlas surveys, as well as one conducted by Trafalgar Group from Oct. 24 to 26, suggest the race is moving in Lake’s direction.
However, a CNN poll, conducted from Oct. 21 to 26, found Gallego with an 8 percent lead.
CNN ranks No. 14 on the Five-Thirty-Eight in terms of accuracy.
Lake’s apparent move up in the contest comes the same day as Fox News moved Arizona from “toss-up” to “leans Republican” in the presidential race.
Republican National Committee political director James Blair confirmed that Trump is looking particularly good in Arizona, among the seven swing states.
He said it is also worth noting that the polling doesn’t necessarily pick up the voter registration gains for Republicans in Arizona.
Blair explained that Republicans had about a 130,000 registered voter advantage over Democrats in the state in 2020, but now it is over 280,000.
Trump Political Director @JamesBlairUSA lays out the race with a week to go:
“We are turning out more of our low- and mid-propensity voters than she is across the board. We have more new registered voters than she does … we’re seeing those people activate and turn out early.” pic.twitter.com/nJjsjdV2Yd
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 29, 2024
He went on to argue that pollsters tend to set their samples using the 2020 party electorate breakdown as a guide, but since that election, Arizona and other battleground states have moved three to five percent to the right.
Disclosure: Floyd Brown, founder of The Western Journal, is serving on a volunteer basis as chairman of Kari Lake’s Senate campaign.
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