Op-Ed: Will the Jewish Vote Be the Game Changer in 2024?
In a recent speech to a pro-Israel group, former President Donald Trump suggested that the Jewish vote could determine this election — and he may be right.
Pennsylvania, which could decide the fate of the White House in 2024, has over 400,000 Jewish residents, comprising 3.3 percent of its population. In a race where the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs, even small shifts in key demographics could sway the results, and data indicates that the Jewish vote is no longer as predictable as it once was.
With the House of Representatives also in play, the Congressional majority may also hinge on swing districts in New York with large Jewish populations. Polls from Siena College indicate a near-tied race among New York Jews, with the latest poll showing a newfound 10-point Trump lead.
American Jews have historically voted overwhelmingly Democratic for cultural and demographic reasons. However, a shift is underway. According to a new study by Pew Research, 65 percent of Jewish voters currently back Kamala Harris, while 34 percent support Donald Trump — a figure that, if it holds, would mark one of the best Republican showings among Jewish voters in recent history. Consider that Trump won about 30 percent of the Jewish vote in 2020, matching Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance — the highest since 1988.
The potential shift is largely due to the fact that Israel’s security is no longer a strongly bipartisan issue, combined with the recent surge of anti-Semitism often associated with pro-Palestinian movements. On college campuses and elsewhere, core Democratic constituencies often support Hamas and assault Jews. And while Jewish voters care about many issues, Democratic studies show none moves them more than Israel. The Oct. 7, 2023, massacre and subsequent war have only heightened this shift.
According to YouGov, Trump voters overwhelmingly side with Israel by a 69 percent to 5 percent margin, while Harris’ supporters are more divided, with only 16 percent supporting Israel. Meanwhile, a recent CBS poll found that 77 percent of Democrats oppose supplying weapons to Israel, a stark departure from the party’s historically strong pro-Israel stance. Even when Democrats call themselves pro-Israel, their policies often differ enormously from pro-Israel Republicans.
The Jewish vote’s stability or slight shift to the right is notable amid broader demographic changes. Republicans populist shift is trading more educated, wealthier, urban, and suburban voters for working-class support. But anti-elitist messaging tends not to resonate with Jews, many of whom associate certain aspects of populism with targeting of Jews in the past. Yet, other factors appear to counter these headwinds.
For instance, Jewish voting patterns vary significantly based on religious affiliation. According to Pew, Orthodox Jews are nearly as Republican as White Evangelicals, while Jews of No Religion are almost as Democratic as Black Protestants. This also means that how one defines Jewish affects measured outcomes. Historical data largely is based on religious affiliation, which means who should current comparisons. But the more ethnic-only Jews of no religion (27 percent of all Jews, with 32 percent identifying with no denomination) are counted, the more Democratic the result.
The presidential candidates’ approaches to the Jewish vote could not be more different. Trump has highlighted his accomplishments as president, such as the Abraham Accords, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, and a hard line against Iran. He also links Jewish issues to signature issues like immigration enforcement and accountability for left-wing protesters, proposing to deport pro-Hamas non-citizens and prosecute anti-Semitic protest violence.
Critics calling Trump anti-Semitic for conflating American Jews with loyalty to pro-Israel policies or criticizing George Soros miss the point. He talks about Jews and Israel the way many conservative, pro-Israel Jews do, and his style resonates with that audience. It is authentic. What some call anti-Semitic is nothing you wouldn’t hear at a Chabad kiddush or many conservative Jewish families’ Shabbat meals.
Meanwhile, Vice President Harris must balance Jewish voters with the more plentiful anti-Israel progressives in her coalition. Biden’s perceived weakness on Israel hurt him with young voters and Michigan Muslims, pressuring Harris to differentiate herself.
Yet, partisanship is the strongest psychological force in politics, and many habitual Jewish Democratic voters merely need a story they can tell themselves. Harris’ strategy relies on “our support of Israel is unshakable, BUT” and partisan surrogates, like her Jewish husband, to create that permission structure, while also letting anti-Israel voices feel heard and validated.
As Israel’s security, rising anti-Semitism, and the Democratic Party’s progressive shift continue to reshape political loyalties, Jewish voters will be closely studying their choices — and in a year where every vote could count, their impact could be monumental.
Matt Knee is the Chief Data Officer at WPA Intelligence. A veteran political data scientist, Matt has provided modeling, analytics, and strategic consulting to clients at all levels of politics — from state and local races to senatorial and presidential campaigns and national committees.
The views expressed in this opinion article are those of their author and are not necessarily either shared or endorsed by the owners of this website. If you are interested in contributing an Op-Ed to The Western Journal, you can learn about our submission guidelines and process here.
Truth and Accuracy
We are committed to truth and accuracy in all of our journalism. Read our editorial standards.
Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. Advertise Today.
