Haley's Self-Inflicted Groundhog Day and Five Other Takeaways from the South Carolina GOP Primary
On Saturday, former President Donald Trump trounced former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in her home state’s Republican presidential primary.
The GOP front-runner defeated Haley by more than 20 percentage points (59.8 percent to 39.5 percent).
The lesson from Trump’s dominant victory should sound familiar. In short, the people have aligned against the establishment, but the establishment will not go quietly.
With this in mind, here are six takeaways from Saturday’s primary:
Groundhog Day
On Jan. 23, Haley lost the New Hampshire primary by double digits. In Iowa’s caucus on Jan. 15, she finished third behind Trump and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. Several days after the Iowa loss, DeSantis withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump.
Following each of her resounding defeats, however, Haley delivered what sounded like delusional victory speeches. And she was at it again on Saturday.
Much like Bill Murray waking up to find that every day is Feb. 2, we have seen this movie before, and we know what happens.
“There are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative,” Haley told her supporters in a clip posted to the social media platform X.
“I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president,” she added, drawing cheers from supporters.
“I’m a woman of my word,” she said, signaling her intent to remain in the race.
🚨Nikki Haley to remain in presidential race:
“I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina I would continue to run for president.. I’m a woman of my word.” pic.twitter.com/xJPWMizMci
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) February 25, 2024
Yes, many voters have indicated that they want an alternative to Trump. But many, many more have shown that they do not. The latter have prevailed. Elections work that way.
According to RealClearPolling, on Feb. 24, 2016, Trump led the race for the Republican presidential nomination by an average of 13.2 points. Today, that average lead stands at 62.2 points.
Thus, Haley has no conceivable path to the nomination. Her behavior, therefore, should strike us as inexplicable except for one thing.
No Longer Hiding in Plain Sight
Throughout his campaign, former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy identified Haley as the choice of establishment Republicans and Democrats alike. He even used the phrase “hiding in plain sight” to describe the establishment’s alleged plan to replace Trump with Haley.
Saturday on X, Ramaswamy amplified that argument by sharing a revealing clip featuring Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California.
In an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Newsom described Haley as “one of our better surrogates.” The governor added that he hoped Haley would remain in the race.
Ramaswamy noted that the establishment has grown so desperate that it no longer conceals its sinister intentions.
“Gavin Newsom about Nikki Haley: ‘she’s one of our better surrogates.’ The game plan has been hiding in plain sight. Now it’s not even hiding,” Ramaswamy tweeted.
Gavin Newsom about Nikki Haley: “she’s one of our better surrogates.” The game plan has been hiding in plain sight. Now it’s not even hiding. https://t.co/TaQa8atseU
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 24, 2024
Do establishment politicians and operatives in both parties seriously hope to remove Trump by nefarious means and then elevate Haley? What do they expect to happen next? Do they think Trump’s voters will simply go along with it?
If so, it should surprise no one. After all, recent surveys helped quantify in shocking terms the chasm between authoritarian elites and ordinary freedom-loving Americans.
Haley: South Carolina’s Second-Most-Unpopular Republican
Following Saturday’s victory — for reasons only he can say — Trump invited Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina to speak. It did not go well for Graham.
The former president’s mere mention of Graham’s name brought applause from people standing on stage behind him but a clear chorus of boos from the crowd.
In fact, Trump tried to soften their reaction.
“No, no,” the former president said in a clip posted to X. “No, no, remember, remember,” Trump said as the boos grew louder.
The former president, so often derided as the leader of a supposed “cult,” tried in vain to quiet supporters.
“I love him. He’s a good man. Come up here, Lindsey,” Trump said after failing to quell the anti-Graham uproar.
When the senator finally began speaking, the boos barely subsided. Graham spoke for 25 seconds before racing from the podium as fast as possible.
Left-wing Mediaite posted the clip and described the scene as one would expect from an establishment outlet.
“Lindsey Graham was ruthlessly booed by Trump supporters when introduced at the South Carolina primary,” Mediaite said.
Lindsey Graham was ruthlessly booed by Trump supporters when introduced at the South Carolina primary. pic.twitter.com/YhLjSAoBRc
— Mediaite (@Mediaite) February 25, 2024
Clearly, Graham’s relentless, America-last warmongering over Ukraine and the Middle East has not endeared him to Trump’s base.
Only the former president can say whether he knew this prior to introducing the senator.
Either way, it would be difficult to imagine a scene more reflective of the Republican electorate’s present anti-establishment mood.
Inside the Numbers: South Carolina’s Wealth Disparities
Trump’s continued dominance might make it seem pointless to delve into the numbers. But a closer look at South Carolina’s county-by-county results will help illustrate the GOP’s current division between insiders and outsiders.
According to The Associated Press, for instance, Haley defeated Trump by more than 16 points in Richland County, home to the state capital of Columbia. The University of South Carolina also calls the city of Columbia home. Thus, given the presence of government officials and a major university, an establishment candidate’s strong performance comes as no surprise.
Meanwhile, the former governor also outperformed Trump in the Palmetto State’s affluent coastal regions.
In Charleston County, for instance, Haley scored a whopping 24-point victory.
And in Beaufort County, which includes Hilton Head Island, she won by more than 11 points.
According to The State — a Columbia-based newspaper — Charleston and Beaufort ranked as South Carolina’s two richest counties in 2023.
York, Dorchester and Lancaster ranked third, fourth and fifth, respectively. Trump won all three of those counties. But they are not the same kind of affluent as the top two.
Charleston, for instance, has an average investment income of $63,931 and a median home value of $523, 418. For Beaufort, those numbers are only slightly smaller at $60,657 and $505,269, respectively.
Other counties simply do not compare.
York and Lancaster, for instance, have average investment incomes of $34,527 and $18,060, respectively. Median home values are $355,603 for York and $364,904 for Lancaster. Each is less than an hour’s drive from Charlotte, North Carolina, and each has a suburban wealth profile.
In short, Trump did win in some places where people make money. But the establishment-backed Haley dominated in places where people make money primarily through investments, where the super-rich reside, where government employees proliferate and where universities indoctrinate young people.
Trump Is Winning the Narrative
Despite controlling nearly every major source of information and opinion — from media to Hollywood and the universities — the establishment cannot seem to fend off a political movement comprised of ordinary Americans.
By contrast, the former president appears to be winning the information and opinion battle.
Trump won the presidency by promising to focus on America first. As a result, he built a loyal base. And those supporters have witnessed the tyrannical lengths the establishment will go to stop him.
Judging by South Carolina primary exit polling, none of that appears poised to change anytime soon.
For instance, according to CBS News, 35 percent of voters indicated they sought a candidate who “fights for people like me” — and of those voters, 90 percent supported Trump.
Likewise, 83 percent of respondents reported they had made up their minds before February.
Perhaps most telling of all, 61 percent of voters indicated that they did not think President Joe Biden won the 2020 election “legitimately.”
In other words, more than three in five South Carolina Republican voters believe Trump and their own eyes. And they do not believe the establishment media. Go figure.
Iowa and New Hampshire Combined
Finally, South Carolina’s contest on Saturday combined certain elements of last month’s Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
For instance, South Carolina’s Republican electorate, like Iowa’s, includes many evangelical Christians and other conservatives.
At the same time, the state’s GOP primary, like New Hampshire’s, includes voters who may identify as independents or Democrats.
According to NBC News, Trump dominated among “very conservative” and “white evangelical” voters. He also won self-described Republicans by a massive margin, 70 percent to 30 percent.
Thus, no matter the election format or the electorate’s composition, Trump has prevailed.
In short, we have seen this entire story unfold for many years. In some cases, we have seen it again and again. And the former president — the people’s choice — seems to be only getting stronger.
We now wait and see when and how the tottering establishment will strike back.
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