Trump Polling 27% Higher Than Biden Among Independents, According to New Poll
It’s easy to pick a bit of good data out of a bad poll. Heaven knows we’ve had to do enough of that over the past few months considering President Donald Trump’s poll numbers.
However, there was one number in a CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday in the wake of the Democratic National Convention that should give Republicans hope, and could be a sign that the Democratic poll advantage so far is not nearly as strong as the mainstream media would like the country to believe.
It has to do with the most important demographic for Trump in this election — and the most important one last time. That would be self-described independents.
As for the bottom-line number, it still showed former Vice President Joe Biden ahead. This isn’t a surprising number coming from a survey these days, although the numbers on the presidential polling section was made up of “likely voters” as opposed to merely “registered voters.” (For the uninitiated, “likely voter” polls tend to be significantly more accurate — and also tend to show Trump closer to Biden than the “registered voter” ones.)
Biden was up nationally, 52 percent to 42 percent. This was higher than the RealClearPolitics polling average on Thursday, but not significantly.
The Democratic nominee was also up among most demographics. Forty-eight percent of males said they were voting for Biden vs. 47 percent who said they were voting for Trump. Among women, the margin was 54 percent for Biden against 38 percent for Trump.
For those under 45 years of age, it was 58 percent to 32 percent for Biden. Among those 45 and over, it was a tie at 48 percent.
Republicans necessarily favored Trump. Democrats necessarily favored Biden.
It was, however, the independent vote that should have raised a few eyebrows.
The poll stated that 47 percent of likely independent voters were leaning toward President Trump. Thirty-seven percent, meanwhile, said they were for Biden.
That’s a 10-point spread — meaning Trump’s number was 27 percent higher than Biden’s.
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 23, 2020
The entire poll, which was conducted among 957 registered voters — including an unspecified number of “likely voters” — between Aug. 20 and 22, had a margin of error of 3.6 points.
Now, of course, independent voters don’t determine the whole shebang. In fact, if they did, the polls would look slightly better for Donald Trump. But they certainly end up determining a lot.
This isn’t the only poll which shows Trump closing the lead slightly but surely on Biden — something that should have the Democrats worried considering the fact this it was taken immediately after their convention, when most campaigns are looking for a poll bounce.
The RealClearPolitics average Thursday showed Biden beating President Trump by a 49.6 to a 42.5 margin. However, the polls and surveys have been all over the place.
An Economist/YouGov survey, for instance, had Biden ahead 50 percent to 41 percent — but that was a survey of 1,500 registered voters, not likely voters.
Meanwhile, a Rasmussen Reports poll of 2,500 likely voters had President Trump only down by one point — 46 percent to 45 percent, within the 2 percent margin of error.
The Rasmussen poll was conducted online and by telephone Aug. 19-20 and Aug. 23-25, whereas the Economist/YouGov survey was conducted online only between Aug. 23 and 25. Online-only polls are generally considered less reliable than those conducted by phone.
There’s no particularly clear picture that emerges from these polls other than the fact there is no clear picture, something the liberal media doesn’t particularly like pointing out. For the purposes of the mainstream media narrative, the polling is clear and shows Biden well ahead.
How this serves the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, I don’t know. After all, voters were told the exact same things about Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016, and look at what happened there — particularly with independent voters.
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