Sorry, Tiger or Phil isn't winning the US Open or any other major
When the championship trophy is presented Sunday following the final round of the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, millions of golf fans around the world would be thrilled to see either Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson hoist the sterling silver prize.
For Mickelson, it would end years of frustration at the U.S. Open, where he has never won but has finished second a record six times.
For Woods, it would be his first major since the 2008 U.S. Open and his 15th major overall, putting him even closer to Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18.
As great as it would be for golf — and for Fox Sports’ ratings — fans shouldn’t get their hopes up. While Woods and Mickelson have had solid seasons in terms of where they’ve finished on the leaderboard, the reality is it’s unlikely either will win this week — or perhaps ever again in a major.
The Age Factor: First and foremost, Woods and Mickelson have age working against them.
Mickelson turns 48 on Saturday, while Woods is 42. In the last 100 years, only eight players have won majors after the age of 40. The oldest player to win a major in that span is Julius Boros, who won the 1968 PGA Championship at age 48. The last golfer older than 40 to win a major was Hale Irwin, who was 45 when he won the 1990 U.S. Open.
That means it’s been 28 years since anyone over 40 has won a major.
Average age of the last 18 US Open winners is 29.5. And of those winners the oldest was 37. Only 37+ year old with a shot is Rose
— Neil (@realdeal8313) June 12, 2018
Jack Nicklaus stunned the golf world when he won the Masters at age 46, but that was 32 years ago. Even the great Arnold Palmer never won a major after the age of 34.
Granted, today’s over-40 golfers are in better shape than their peers of 30 years ago, and the equipment also helps keep older players competitive longer than it used to. But the younger players are also in better shape than 30 years ago, and the equipment is helping the younger hitters hit it longer and farther than they used to, as well.
Time is almost as formidable a foe as the thick rough at the U.S. Open, so while no one doubts Woods and Mickelson can be competitive this weekend, winning might be a little too much to ask.
Mickelson: Age has not kept him from being competitive this year. He picked up his first tournament win since 2013 and six top-10 finishes in 15 events.
But some of his statistics and their recent trends prove why winning a major may be beyond his grasp.
Mickelson’s biggest liability is off the tee. He enters the U.S. Open ranked 87th in driving distance. In 2015, he finished 22nd.
He ranks an abysmal 201st in driving accuracy this year. Mind you, only 205 players are ranked, so he’s only better than the likes of Sam Burns, Camilo Villegas, Ricky Barnes and Smylie Kaufman.
He also ranks just 140th in greens in regulation, which is actually an improvement from last year when he finished 163rd. He’s finished in the top 100 in this category only twice in the last five years.
You don’t have to be the longest hitter to win the U.S. Open, but you absolutely, positively can’t miss fairways with the U.S. Open’s infamous high rough. Mickelson is still one of the best around the green, but if he only hits 51 percent of his fairways, as he’s done so far this year, he probably won’t make the cut, let alone win the tournament.
It’s worth noting that while Mickelson has a win this year, it did not come in a full-field event. It was in the WGC-Mexico Championship, which features only 64 players. Granted, those 64 are all among the top players in the world, but when it comes to a full, 144-man field, Mickelson hasn’t won since 2013.
Woods: Tiger has made eight of nine cuts this year and has two top-10 finishes and six top-25s. For someone who was away from the game for as long as Woods was, those are outstanding results.
He’s 26th in driving distance, a surprising rank for anyone coming off multiple back surgeries. He is, however, just 182nd in driving accuracy and 102nd in greens in regulation. His putting has been very inconsistent, and the U.S. Open is not a place to go without full confidence in your putter.
After his last event, a T23 finish at the Memorial two weeks ago, Woods said his game is “where it needs to be” heading into the U.S. Open.
“Overall, my game is where it needs to be heading into the U.S. Open, and that’s something that’s very positive,” said Woods. – TGRhttps://t.co/3IBjBgPKRh
— Tiger Woods (@TigerWoods) June 4, 2018
Woods has not played in the U.S. Open since missing the cut in 2015 and has missed the event four times in the last seven years. He just hasn’t played enough rounds against the world’s best players over a four-day grind to have a reasonable expectation of standing in the winner’s circle on Sunday.
Never say never: Tom Watson won his last of eight majors at age 33, but he came within a stroke of winning a sixth British Open in 2009 at age 59. So put the right golfer on the right course, and who knows what can happen.
If Mickelson were to win another major, his best chance is probably at the British Open, where length off the tee is less important than play around the green. He won the tournament in 2013 and played well enough to win in 2016, posting the lowest score ever at the Open for a runner-up.
Woods’ best chance of ever winning another major may be at the Masters, which he’s won four times. For a player who doesn’t play as many rounds as most other tour players, the familiarity of Augusta is an asset to Woods. Plus, he can still hit it long enough to attack the course’s par 5s, and playing those holes under par is critical to winning that tournament.
Between them, Woods and Mickelson have combined for 122 PGA Tour victories and 19 majors. Golf fans would love to see each of them add another major to their impressive career totals, but they aren’t likely to overcome Father Time to be crowned a champion on Father’s Day.
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