Blue Wave Warning: 86% Chance Democrats Take Over the House
A recent forecast just days in advance of the midterm elections predicted that Democrats have an 85.8 percent chance of winning control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 6 election.
The forecasting published by FiveThirtyEight, an election coverage affiliate of ABC News, gave Democrats a 6 in 7 chance of taking control of the larger chamber of Congress.
As of early Thursday, the predictive tools that the website utilizes guessed that there would be 235 blue seats and 200 red, with Republicans having just over a 14 percent chance of controlling the House.
If those predictions come true, Democrats could win up to 62 seats in the House, with the polls showing that they will likely win a minimum of 20.
The prediction is based on the average that Democrats are likely going to take more than 40 seats in the house, which would put them well over the 218 needed to take the majority.
Democrats currently hold 194 seats in the House and Republicans hold 241.
A poll conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal agreed with the FiveThirtyEight prediction, showing a sizable lead for Democrats
“The current data shows that the Democratic advantage has ebbed but still with a large advantage. And the GOP shows some life,” Democratic pollster Fred Yang told NBC.
The poll found that overall 48 percent of registered voters prefer having Democrats control Congress, with just 41 percent in favor of a GOP-controlled congress.
The only good news for Republicans in that count is that the Democratic lead has narrowed from 12 points in September to a 7-point gap, according to NBC.
While the midterms are still weeks away, the votes have already started pouring in, and according to Fox News, it should serve as a warning for Republicans.
Fox reported Monday that early voting showed a big increase in voter engagement over the 2014 midterm elections, but that a good portion of it is Democratic. According to Fox’s report, over 4.3 million Americans have already cast their ballot.
Numbers posted by Nevada’s secretary of state reported a strong Democratic showing in their state. According to the numbers after week one, almost 50 percent of the early Nevada votes have been Democratic.
While early voting is showing positive signs for Democrats, Republicans haven’t given up hope.
Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a Monday interview on Fox’s “America’s Newsroom” that she expects the GOP to hold the Senate.
According to McDaniel though, Republicans shouldn’t bank on keeping the House of Representatives.
“There’s a possibility to keep the majority in the House,” she said. “But it’s going to depend on our voters turning out.”
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